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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company

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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (1234)	5/25/2000 11:48:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	of 13582

Okay, here are the 2000 figures for cumulative cdmaOne handset sales. Resetting the scale to . = 10m to make the graph manageable. Dec1995 start in Hong Kong Dec1996 1m Jun1997 3m Dec1997 7m Jun1998 12m Dec1998 23m.. Jun1999 30m... Dec1999 50m..... Jun2000 65m....... Dec2000100m.......... Reviewing progress. The Rich Janitor says 65m MSMs shipped to the end of September 99. Q1 added 14 million and Q2 11 million. This Q is high at about 17 million. Cumulative sales of MSMs ever for mobile CDMA = 100 million the other day. Gee, it seems just yesterday that it was 10 million MSMs cumulative. We can safely bet on a parts limited CDMA handset market for the rest of the year, but very rapidly growing. The lag from sale of MSM to matching subscriber growth by sale of that handset seems to be about 2 months or less. So, with 14 + 11 + 17 + 20 + 24 MSM sales to December we should be at about 150 MSM sold by then, with WWeb MSMs kicking in. Currently there are about 60m subscribers and 100m MSMs sold. If we guess the same ratio for Dec, there should be 100m handsets sold by end of Dec. Okay, time to revise down my graph from 122m to 100m subscribers by Dec 2000. Still, that's better than 70m which were estimated by Q! at the beginning of the year. Not bad considering the huge drop in share price against such a graph. Mqurice PS: Don't forget to dehypothecate tomorrow [or next week] and turn the market around. While I think of it, New Zealand does NOT have CDMA yet and it won't be until toward the end of next year by the look of it. So that post about Australi/New Zealand, Canada, USA, Japan etc all going great on CDMA was a little wrong. NZ is still a separate country from Australia - there is NO CDMA here.

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