Any number crunchers want to do some cash flow calculations?<g>..Let's see $4.25 per 1000 cu ft price for natural gas,CHK's reported daily production for the 3 months ending 3/00 was 373,000,000 cu ft per day..Of course they never realize the true NYMEX price,,so maybe we should use $3.25 to be safe..round her out and we're looking in the range of a cool million /day in cash flow
...the company's projection (note, all hedges have come off or been bought out)
"Year 2000 Forecasts and Risk Management Update
Chesapeake's previous guidance on its 2000 forecasts was based on a projected mcfe price of $2.44. That number has now been updated to $2.64 per mcfe, which is based on expected NYMEX average oil and gas prices (as modified by existing risk management hedges described below) of $24.15 per barrel and $2.75 per mcf. This budget assumes differentials to NYMEX prices of $1.20 per barrel and $0.32 per mcf. In addition, Chesapeake is projecting production of 138 bcfe (84% gas) and per mcfe lease operating expenses of $0.50 (including $0.15 per mcfe of production taxes), interest costs of $0.61, general and administrative costs of $0.10 and DD&A of oil and gas properties of $0.74.
If the forecasted targets listed above are achieved, Chesapeake is projected to generate cash flow from operations in 2000 of $205 million and earnings of $80 million. In accordance with the company's stated intention of keeping its capital budget in balance with internally generated cash flows, Chesapeake's cap-ex budget for 2000 has been established at $200 million. Of this amount, $130-140 million has been allocated to drilling and $60-70 million to acquisitions, debt repayment, or other general corporate purposes such as preferred dividend payments or repurchases.
The projections above include the impact of Chesapeake's risk management activities. For April 2000, 90% of the company's projected natural gas production was hedged at NYMEX prices of $2.59 per mcf and 33% of oil production was hedged at $27.25 per barrel. In addition, to further protect the company's cash flows, an estimated 35% of estimated May-August gas production has been hedged at an average NYMEX price of $2.74 per mcf and 20% of estimated gas production for September and October 2000 has been hedged at $2.70 per mcf. No additional hedges are in place."
bound to retrace in here sometime, but damn it's looking good!!<g>...maybe the chalk black eye is healing,,kinda hoping some of this extra cash flow will target the trend or chalk properties....
Finally going to be a sunny day,,can you say time to do some painting? <lol>...still to wet to dig..;^(
PS: is my above quick math in the ball park?
everyone have a happy, safe Holiday................
(lightened up on EEE at the open yesterday, managed to get rid of 1800 shares at $1.75..a gift,,had a limit order of
1 11/16ths..I went a bit overboard as usual<g>,,further study found that they won't have any drilling activity in Nova Scotia until 2002..But there still should be some nice upside when the hedges come off in Oct...but they are certainly missing some nice cash flow at these levels) |
