Good Morning Sacred.
But the answer maybe is in the deep hole we all dug out of these damn TECH P/Es over the years. There's just no simple way to knock 90% off nasdaq's avg P/E w/o a lot of pain.
I'm just an avg joe, but I'll get the ball rolling. Here's my predictions.
05/26/2000 : Nasdaq 2899.019. DOW : 9876.54321
05/30/2000 : Nasdaq 2598.091. DOW : 9123.45678
06/02/2000 : Nasdaq 1929.010. DOW : 9234.56781
07/03/2000 : Nasdaq 2000.0704 DOW : 9999.99999
Pretty scarey prediction, I propose an alternative scenario. As you know I have been 100% so far in my predictions, so my next forecast will certainly carry alot of clout.
There is an "evil" attempt, going on, to pull off my bull horns and fit me with a furry coat. I must admit it, it is getting chilly out there and I could use the coat, but I believe there is one way we can save this bull.
Over the last few wekks we have seen the teckies die and many of them are now at "barely acceptable, but acceptable P/E's. To be able to declare the pullback over, we need more rotation into the other stocks on Nas, and a revision of weighting on the composite. The latter is not likely to happen, so we need the influx of new money into this market to stabilize it.
Because of Greenspans determined effort to crush irrational exhuberance and get as many people "unemployed" as quickly as possible the greatest threat to the present markets is his position on rates in June. If he persists with a large rate hike in June, my impression is he will get more than he bargained for. He will not be a "hero" in the republicans or democrats eyes if the result is Nas at 1900.
My belief is that JDSU CSCO and a few others can remain at these lower but rediculous P/e's because of their significant growth potential in the near term. Assuming the market buys into this, and it appears it has, CSCO is bouncing off $50 very convincingly, then when the rest of the market starts seeing the investors comming back we will stabilize quickly.
Ultimately I still have hope that this is almost over, and am betting on a 3000 bottom on nasdaq at worse. If this were to occur, it likely will be propelled by next Fridays Employment numbers. If those numbers are good, then in the shortterm I don't see us blowing the 3100 mark
So to match your forecast dates, i see
05/26/2000 : Nasdaq 3173.21 DOW : 10,278.92
05/30/2000 : Nasdaq 3231.541 DOW : 10,321.34
06/02/2000 : Nasdaq 3305.11 DOW : 10,420.34
07/03/2000 : Nasdaq 3141.06 DOW : 10,620.13
Once again, we have cast our prophecies for all to see and admire ....or scoff at!!<gggg>
As they used to say in "Star Trek" the series;
"May the person with the least number of charts win"
the Chief |
