Wayne... It certainly is a good article and explains how cannabilistic the gold mining industry has become.
However, if I may excerpt a couple of paragraphs from Hathaway's article, it could go far to explaining the schizophrenic nature that has derived from how people perceive the metal:
"Gold mining is risky. The commodity is scarce, hard to find and challenging to produce. Upside possibilities for return on investment are linked to price volatility. Why remove this all-important variable? If typical new mine economics require a gold price of $360/oz to generate a modest return, selling forward at anything less is in essence a liquidation of capital. Yet, the average hedge transaction for the last three years has been at spot prices below this figure.
Here Mr. Hathaway is suggesting that gold be permitted to trade according to supply/demand criteria, and not hedged by miners or bullion bankers. The result will be potentially significant price appreciation. But as we see in the following paragraph, Mr. Hathaway wants to have his cake and eat it too:
It is disappointing that the industry has become almost silent on the advocacy of gold for monetary uses. While initiatives to open and liberalize markets as well as sponsorship of web sites to lower retail jewelry prices are worthwhile, the industry must do whatever it can to reverse gold?s marginalization as an alternative to financial assets. The potential valuation of gold as money, far exceeds the possibilities available through expanding the jewelry market.
Given that logic dictates that gold would have to artificially revalued FAR HIGHER were it to regain a status as an equal currency, or one that backed paper currency, I don't see how he believes that he can continue those "worthwhile efforts" to lower jewelry prices. The best way to do that is to put all of that central bank gold back onto the market (gradually of course).
But furthermore, it is simply impermissible to have a currency be overly volatile. It signals weakness or instability throughout the financial system where none may actually exist. We constantly see comments about the Fed, BOJ, or ECB threatening to intervene in the currency markets for one reason or another. Currencies are not free markets, but regulated ones. If gold is to return as a financial asset, it will be subject to further control and regulation, thus limiting its upside potential.
Better to let it trade like silver or platinum, where you get to see some wild flutuations, than like a currency where it remains heavily controlled.
But the first thing that needs to happen is to get that gold out of the Central Bank vaults and that means moving the gold price to a level where demand for the metal creates further justification for the Central Banks to sell off their reserves.
Regards,
Ron |
