The really BIG picture, FWIW....
IMHO, it's important for me to recall exactly why I am a Tech investor for the next 5-10 years. The reasons are:
1. Technology is driving the world to spin, faster and faster, resulting in a self-perpetuating, self-amplifying cascade. More technology....more productivity...more and faster progress....more technology....and so on and so on. The US has the Technology; the rest of the world wants it, and because it desperately doesn't want to slip further behind in a political-ecosystem that has the world becoming increasingly capitalistic and trade-oriented. Hence, the demand for US Technology should be insatiable, in almost any environment that I can imagine, short of war. I dunno about aluminum, forestry, agriculture, utilities, etc., but I have great confidence in the future of High Tech. I think High Tech will generate ever increasing earnings; and increased earnings will be reflected in share price.
2. "The Greatest Generation", as defined by Tom Brokaw, is or soon will be handing over the greatest collection of accrued wealth, estimated in the trillions (I believe) to the Baby Boomers. Baby Boomers are unlikely to be content, given their investing experience of the past 2 decades, with passbook returns of 2%, or CD returns of 5-6%. They will want to invest their wealth and their inheritance somewhere..........aaahhhh, now where might that be??????
Well, probably in the hottest, fastest growing, most dynamic companies in the most compelling industries........internet infrastructure, fiberoptics, telecommunications, etc.
So, while I watch my Qcom-heavy portfolio get decimated, with predictions on some threads of a share price in the $40s to come, I try to console myself with my beliefs, as described above. AFAIK, the only 2 things I have to fear as an investor are:
1. fear itself, and 2. war
You all probably know this, but it helps to be reminded now and then anyway.
Have a good weekend, and let's be thankful for the fruits of victories past.....and sacrifices made by others for us.
Apollo |
