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Technology Stocks : Computer Associates

CA 25.02

-0.1%

Jan 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: Crystal ball who wrote (4495)	5/26/2000 1:16:00 PM
From: Edwarda	Read Replies (2) of 5232

It doesn't seem one bit fair to me that you share this stuff without sharing whatever it is you're smoking. Let's start thinking: Homebuilding traffic is down 25% in the last six months. Industrial spot prices in general are flat to down. We are seeing early signs of deceleration in demand for steel; the softening in capital goods, equipment, and construction has been masked so far by the auto sector. The positive earnings surprised appear to have peaked. In the first quarter, 70% of the S&P posted positive surprises. Expectations have been adjusted appropriately since then. Company after company is now reporting slowing in demand. So factor into your thinking GDP growth in the second half of 3.5% to 4%. Factor in GDP growth for the full year 2001 of 3.5%. Factor in deceleration and you have a market in which the valuation discrepancy between the S&P 500 and the FTSE World Index narrows. In this environment professional money managers reduce their weighting in U.S. stocks relative to other markets. Have a good one.

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