Semi Equipment-Sell when they're singing in the streets Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment-Sell when they're singing in the streets

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To: Pink Minion who wrote (118)	5/26/2000 2:07:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) of 276

I would NEVER average down in this sector unless you are sure we're near the bottom of the cycle. I'm never sure of anything though. Just like stocks in every other sector, each semi equipment stock has a wide range of P/Es, PSRs, P/B, etc. throughout the calendar year. As this sector enjoys [:^)] a beta much greater than 1, opportunities to buy within the typical 3-4 year upcycle are frequently presented to the investor. In most calendar years during upcycles, more than 1 opportunity to at least double one's money is often available by buying in near the lows then selling near the highs. I believe that this is one such buying opportunity. I believe that there's much upside left in this cycle: 1. Expansion of current fabs with current technology just to overcome the capacity shortfall. 2. Adoption of new technology - smaller feature sizes and Cu. 3. Migration to 300mm which will, for all practical purposes, require a complete new set of tools. I further believe that the Fed may already be done raising rates. The talking heads on the media have behaved most ludicrously on this matter. It's utterly asinine to expect the Fed to publicly state that they believe they've overshot their goal when raising rates by 50 basis points. There was no way in hell the Fed could take that action, then say anything but what they did. i.e. - they still cautious about the inflation outlook. Seriously, did the "talking heads" expect the Fed to say there's no inflation risk whatsoever, but we raised rates just for fun? As John Sossel on ABC (20/20) says, "Give me a break!" FWIW, Ian.

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