Nice job, but remember, with cyclical stocks the rules are completely different. You must buy when the P/E is stratospheric, or even negative (bottom of industry cycle) and sell when the P/E is low (top of industry cycle). Please see Item #4 in this post:
Message 13745221
Sorry to be such a gadfly, but I think a lot of you might be using the rules for growth and value investing, and applying it in error to a cyclical stock.
I'm not saying that KLIC can't move much higher here. All I'm saying is that you should NOT be buying or holding the stock because "The forward P/E looks very attractive." You should be holding the stock because you think the top of the cycle is at least 6 months away, like Scott believes. That's really the only reason you should be holding it. If the top is, in fact, more than 6-9 months away, then you will all be rewarded handsomely.
I also agree that all CEOs and insiders sell, and I have said several times, it is usually not noteworthy. But when many insiders sell almost all their vested shares, then it might be more significant. |
