Blah, blah, blah, blah ... Zhu, Hu, Wu, Zhongxing...
Will they? Won't they?
We know what spectrum is worth in uncrowded UK. Guess what it's worth in China! Yes, CDMA takes the same erlang/bushell there as in the UK where it is far less crowded, making pressure on spectrum in China much greater.
We know that 3G will be CDMA.
I know from seeing their maths and science results here that there are one or two Chinese who know the difference between a wave function and photon phragmentation. So we can conclude they are NOT technically bamboozled by the orthogonal concatenation stuff. They KNOW how many photons they can squeeze into the Great Hall of the People.
That's about all we need to know to know that they will be installing a LOT of CDMA equipment. So it's just a matter of when they are squeezed up against busy signals.
We can just relax, sit back, and wait for them to pay a fair and reasonable rate like everyone else for Q!'s wonderful creation. They'll hiss and roar, threaten, promise and cajole. Tease, lie and suggest this that and the other. In the end, they'll buy.
They'll expand their existing GSM because that's the sensible thing to do for now, then when the time is right, they'll bring on CDMA. I suspect Unicom will be wanting to do it sooner rather than later. There is no future in GSM when the spectrum cost per megabyte is compared with that from HDR and CDMA. We KNOW from the UK just how important spectrum cost will be. China's geeks can figure that out too.
They've got Korean companies busting to do business in China. Japan is into CDMA.
It's amazing how often investors in Q! have been stampeded into absurd sell-offs by one scare after another. While they were selling, CDMA kept right on gaining ground, through the Asian Contagion and disappearance of Korea off the edge of the world [if we listened to a lot of people who know these things].
Meanwhile, ex-FCC boss Reed Hundt joined the absurd idea that high spectrum costs suppress innovation. Quite the contrary. Scarcity and high costs drive innovation. It becomes essential to squeeze every photon possible through a channel. That was the driving force for CDMA in the first place. That means highly sophisticated CDMA and lots of R&D. High costs mean early and urgent buildout to get early returns.
Enjoy the shopping expedition for Q! stock folks. It won't last long.
Mqurice
PS: See Ramsey, CDMA is now more politics than silicon/germanium/gallium. Politics counts.
$62 May 2000...who'd have thought it? |
