The DOJ ruling ensures profitability in the cable BB sector, there won't be any net zeros in BB cable. In Essence, the DOJ ruling says the MSO's are free to own the distribution and the networks, but no one company should control the entire network (treating RR and ATHM as connected for the moment). I think we'll see the MSOs beginning to cooperate at the network level to a much greater extent than was possible in the past - with an eventual melding of ATHM and RR networks (not at the corporate level).
Their should and will be competition at the user level. This is what consumers want and this is what the MSOs want. It isn't what ATHM wanted, so they lose.
ATHM is the MSOs cash cow and as such is too valuable to be independent. It doesn't really matter anymore, we'll begin to see AT&T, COX, Comcast, and TWX acting in the best interest of cable companies and cable BB.
I hope I am not wrong in my belief that our value has increased with the greater sub numbers and that the public perception will have to soon shift to athm's size.
If cable companies cooperate then what ATHM gains from RR is a wash - nothing really created. What is needed for the cable BB companies to succeed, beyond what was conceivable last year, is the value added features that come from agreeing to compete at the user level. That is the prescription for creating content and services that will compel dial up users to abandon that pathetic 56k internet.
What is the saying - a rising tide lifts all boats. The best possible realistic scenario for ATHM, given that continued exclusivity was never realistic, is for the cable industry to invest in the scale up of the entire infrastructure and just convert every 56k modem to cable. I don't see anything from stopping them. |
