US Auto Sales May Fall for 1st Time Since Aug 1998
Detroit, May 26 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. new car and light truck sales are forecast to fall 2 percent this month, the first decline in 1 1/2 years, as consumers cut spending and automakers held back incentives, based on estimates from four analysts.
DaimlerChrysler AG's Chrysler sales are forecast to fall 15 percent from May 1999 -- its best month ever -- in part because the company didn't boost discounts on its aging product line. Sales will fall 4 percent from May 1999 at General Motors Corp. and be little changed at Ford Motor Co., while most Japanese and European makers record bigger gains and take more share.
U.S. sales of new cars and light trucks have risen from the year-earlier period each month since August 1998, powered by an expanding economy that has the lowest jobless rate in 30 years. The slip comes as price discounts eat into automaker earnings, interest rates rise and consumers take a breather after declines in the stock market.
``A lot of people's portfolios have taken hits these past few months that have made them think twice if they need that new car,'' said Gordon Wangers, a partner with Automotive Marketing Consultants in San Diego.
The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 21 percent this year through yesterday, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 6 percent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 10 percent. U.S. consumer spending rose in April at the slowest pace in nine months, suggesting that six Federal Reserve interest-rate increases since June may be damping demand. Fed policy-makers raised the overnight bank lending rate a half-point to 6.5 percent on May 16.
``Consumers are going to tap on the brakes and that's not a bad thing,'' said George Pipas, Ford's market analyst. ``The worst of all worlds would be if the Federal Reserve kept raising rates and we failed to find any sign of slower spending.''
Most major automakers will report sales Thursday.
Incentives
It was one year ago, when May's annual selling rate hit 17.3 million, that the U.S. auto sales boom began in earnest. The average estimated annual selling rate this month is 17 million, still ahead of last year's record. Until 1999, when actual sales were a record 16.96 million vehicles, annual sales of 15 million were generally considered a strong year.
DaimlerChrysler's Chrysler unit, which generates 55 percent of the company's operating profit, spent an average $1,900 per vehicle on incentives in the first quarter, up from $1,285 a year earlier. By comparison, GM spent about $500 more per vehicle, while Ford spent about $50 more.
GM and DaimlerChrysler both boosted incentives heading into the Memorial Day weekend. Prior to this weekend, Chrysler had been trying to rein in its discount finance rates to protect profit this quarter. The Stuttgart, Germany-based automaker has told dealers it will add a new round of rebates next week.
Ford, GM and DaimlerChrysler spent a combined average of $1,906 for each vehicle sold in April, up 5 percent from April 1999, according to Autodata Corp. That was $268 more than the industry average in April, the most recent month available.
GM Rebate
GM, the world's largest automaker, added a $500 rebate toward the purchase of some Buick, Pontiac, Oldsmobile and Chevrolet cars in Michigan and Illinois, while DaimlerChrysler advertised zero short-term interest rates on all new Chrysler cars in Southern California.
GM's light-truck sales will be helped by demand for its redesigned Chevrolet Suburban and Tahoe and GMC Yukon, which weren't widely available in May 1999. Those gains will be offset by declining car sales, as the Detroit-based company's Buick and Oldsmobile midsize cars fail to generate demand despite incentives as high as $2,000 per vehicle.
DaimlerChrysler's Chrysler, Dodge and Jeep brands are expected to have their biggest sales decline since May 1997. Analysts expect the automaker's share to erode until its PT Cruiser small-car/truck hybrid arrives in dealerships in significant numbers, followed by redesigned minivans and midsize cars in the third quarter.
This month's sales results probably won't affect U.S. automakers' earnings because profitable light trucks continue to sell well, said Michael Bruynesteyn, an auto analyst at Prudential Securities Inc.
Ford's sales get a boost from new models that weren't in dealerships last May. The Dearborn, Michigan-based company added the Lincoln LS sedan and Focus small car as well as Sport Trac and a redesigned Sport variation of its Explorer sport utility and the SuperCrew variation of its F-Series pickup.
The four estimates include David Healy of Burnham Securities Inc. at 17 million; Morgan Stanley Dean Witter's Stephen Girsky at 16.8 million; Goldman Sachs' Gary Lapidus at 17.1 million and Deutsche Bank Alex Brown's Rod Lache at 17.3 million.
DaimlerChrysler shares fell 5/8 to 54 3/, while GM shares fell 1 15/16 to 70 7/16. Ford shares fell 2 1/2 to 48 3/16.
May/26/2000 16:26 ET |
