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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 665.67

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Nov 17 4:00 PM EST

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To: Mike Hermann who wrote (52343)	5/27/2000 9:39:00 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (2) of 99985

Mike, IMHO gold will trade in a trading range for more than just one year, for the simple reason that the new generation does not know what "store of value" means and truly believes that cash is trash ...... which BTW it is <GG> They are more likely to buy RE than gold as an hedge against inflation due to the available cash flow. China, India and Indonesia are the big hopes for gold but I do not see a substantial economic improvement over there. The failure of gold to rally with oil gave me some disappointment, and the CB's are still selling. Further I anticipate a weak market due to the mere fact that people got used to over 20% returns and this will not happen this year. Most they will be lucky to break even. As such money will leave the stock market and this will put a lid on free cash and inflation. I see inflation peaking between now and summer at around 5% and then trend lower. The FED will be in a hurry to lower interest rates by late summer. As to the demand imbalances as soon as the stock market will falter demand for gold will slow down due to slower jewelry sales. Those are my 2 cents. BWDIK Haim

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