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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 683.38

+0.1%

Nov 12 4:00 PM EST

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To: P314159d who wrote (52337)	5/27/2000 10:33:00 AM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (5) of 99985

What exuberance? As I screen my lists of stocks today I don't see anything which could remotely be called over-valued anymore. People still yack about those crazy internet stocks. You hear it on the media, everywhere. Take a look at the prices. All the e-tailers down 70% or more. B2B's down 70%. Networkers, telcos down 40-50%. Software still in the dumper led by MSFT. Retailers have fared just as badly. You can study your charts all you like but in my experience whenever someone says "we won't rally until we re-test (and re-test again) a REAL hard bottom" like 2800 in the Naz or something, it never gets that far. That kind of talk in itself signals a bottom as it's hopeless capitulation. Who in their right mind would hold if they believe we're going down another 15%? Therefore all the weak and cautious hands have either sold of given up watching. Yet no one is buying. Everyone just assumes the news will continue to be bad. But after this recent 1/2 point hike going into elections - I believe this is as bad as it gets and it has been bad, very bad. The Naz is down 25% this year so far and the Dow 10%. Internet stocks down 70%. Why would anyone assume it's going to get worse? Seems to be the upside potential is much greater from here. And just think how much cash is on the sidelines. And don't those rallies (and crashes) happen when everyone least expects them? Just my opinion. I'll be buying this week, maybe even a few net stocks. Have to laugh at some of the prices. Pick the winners which actually make money. EGRP, FATB, EGGS, etc. But also pick the leaders like SUNW and QCOM. And don't assume MSFT isn't a great buy here. Any break-up should help shareholder value not hurt it. The only thing I believe needs correcting now is the overall perception. The terror factor. By July I believe we will have partially recovered in techs, at least 10% up from here as a group. By the end of the year we could be soaring again. Buying here and holding for 6-9 months will be where the real money is going to be made. Wish I had more cash now. In any case I don't see much downside left, if any. Have a good weekend everyone and remember, everything that goes up or down too far will eventually correct.

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