hdl - I have been puzzled about this for a while but it is starting to look like component supply problems are real. If it was just processors, people might assume that DELL would fare better than others, but that is not the case now. Supply problems include first tier products like disk drives and DRAM, and also second tier products - chipset pieces, basic board components.
Since DELL was caught unaware by shortages in 3Q and 4Q, their credibility in saying "everything's fine" is pretty low (despite the recent posts to the contrary) - after all, they said "everything's fine" the last two times also, only weeks before announcing problems.
DELL has of course also made such a big deal over their low inventory model that everyone is aware of that - and that in a time of component shortages, that model makes them most vulnerable of the big vendors.
Finally, we have the high bar for DELL in the second half of the year. DELL needs perfect execution and high growth to hit those targets, especially in the enterprise space (where shortages of 10K drives may make life hard) and in laptops (where many components are common to handheld and other high volume parts, creating shortages). Unfortunately for DELL, if things just stay as they are in terms of market share, DELL loses - they need to continue to gobble up share, and if they can't build the products, they can't hit the mark.
I am not saying that any or all of these things will actually affect DELL's performance. But that is the perception that I am hearing from folks I talk with. |
