Cha2,
<< Respectfully disagree that this particular post by Ruffian is an "excellent post" and would suggest that it is particularly dangerous for "those who do not follow the New Qualcomm thread" >>
I thought that I should comment on this before I deliver my "pep talk" on QCOM per Tek's request.
IMO, this is a pretty good article on the state of mobile wireless telephony in China and the barriers to the implementation of CDMA there. It does however have a "feed from GSM" and perhaps from "anti Qualcomm sources" but that is not the only feed.
There are a lot of good solid and important fact in the article. For anyone that wants to include "CDMA in China" as a rationale for investing in Qualcomm, this represents important counterpoint to the viewpoint frequently expressed on the Qualcomm S&P 500 thread or in CDG press releases.
While the facts in the article are, "on balance" reasonably accurate, I do not agree with all of the authors conclusions. I happen to think that cdmaOne will eventually be implemented in China, but like the future subscriber growth projections that Terry Yen recently made on behalf of CDG, I exclude it from any short term analyses of Qualcomm. CDMA adoption in China potentially represents a lot of upside, but I am not investing in Qualcomm on any near term possibility of same.
I do take issue with one statement by the author:
<< "GSM and CDMA, two incompatible second generation wireless standards" >>
The two standards are no longer "incompatible". cdmaOne can build out beside GSM. The recently approved (by TIA & ITU) CDMA SIM/R-UIM standard will allow interoperability between GSM & cdmaOne and SIM card providers are ready to deliver SIM cards today, while handset manufacturers are ready to roll out dual-mode handsets by the end of the year.
If Unicom builds out cdmaOne, the cdmaOne subscriber can roam on the established GSM infrastructure. Same applies if cdmaOne is migrated to cdma2000 in existing spectrum while UMTS rolls out in new spectrum. Handsets will be interoperable.
But forgetting UMTS for the moment, one of the most important paragraphs in the article is this one:
"Another factor possibly at work in the Chinese Government's foot-dragging on CDMA is its recent strenuous efforts to develop and promote a proprietary 3G wireless standard of its own, known as TD-SCDMA (Time Division Synchronous Code Division Multiple Access). Although most of those familiar with the project see it as too-little-too-late and unlikely to succeed in the near term, the Chinese 3G standard was accepted by the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) last year and many expect the government to make a run at pressuring the industry into cooperating on its development."
Keep your eye on TD-SCDMA. It is one of the recently approved standard for air interfaces for a reason.
<< "I've gone back and reviewed Dr. J's claims over the past 18 months, and he's batting 1000" [cuf].
I ain't gonna touch that one. <g> I'm REALLY glad cuf did not comment on Perry LaForge.
<<Think I'll leave my bet on the table >>
Me too!
<< Ruffian ... his clips of articles are agnostic, his views are his own, and positive re the Q >>
Hey, that's me. Brother Ruff and I are cut from the same cloth.
- Eric - |
