Hi richard surckla; The Taiwanese yahoo article is suggesting that investors purchase stocks in the DRAM making companies. The figure for Micron (i.e. 1/4 going to RDRAM) actually is about conversion to RDRAM plus flash.
An approximate translation runs something like this:
Communist Chinese maneuvers have suppressed DRAM company stock prices in Taiwan. But smaller memory makers have strong (technical) stock support, which shows that the second half of the year is going to be good.
Plus, some international company redirect production capacity to flash, which will press DRAM production capacity. The 2nd half supply / demand is unbalanced. DRAM companies stock prices are down, providing a great buying opportunity.
According to Dataquest, mid year market demand is greater than supply. And the prediction is that it will not be resolved until the end of 2002. Dataquest points out that so far, 64Mb SDRAM contract price will be $US6.50 to $US7.00. And the prediction is 3Q will be $US7.00 to $US7.50. Dataquest's Jim Handy believes that during the next two years demand / supply will let DRAM prices be stable, and also there is room to go up.
Micron estimates to reallocate 1/4 of its SDRAM manufacturing capability to RDRAM and flash. Market estimates Micron's capability of manufacturing DRAM is 50MM per month. Their second half capability will accordingly drop to 40MM. And Samsung also will increase their capacity of RDRAM from 2MM to 10MM per month, up 5 times. They will also include flash and adjust standard DRAM production down.
World manufacturing capacity of DRAM has US capacity at 16% (which is mostly Micron). Samsung alone produces 15%, while Taiwan is number 3 at 13%. With the US decrease in capacity along with Korea, that will cause the Taiwan percentage to increase. DRAM traders have a common belief. Right now DRAM wholesale prices is between $US6.10 to $US6.15, some of the traders already push it up to $US6.50. Because DIMM module wholesale prices are heating up, prices have increased from $US49 to $US50.50.
For the end of May, some lack of confidence and the desire to clear out inventory in advance of the big computer show of June 5. So estimates for mid June DRAM prices will be around $US7.00.
Fundamentally, DRAM stock market performance is in no doubt. But are down now because of the decline in the US Nasdaq, plus the US Federal Reserve increasing the interest rates by two notches, and is possible to increase by another notch on June 27, in order to control inflation.
w3.ttnn.com
Any errors in translation are probably my own note taking, my buddy speaks the language very well. My own take on the whole thing is that the guy is just wrong about Micron. No similar articles have said anything about Micron removing that much SDRAM manufacturing capacity, and it is in direct contradiction to what we know about Micron and its feeling about RDRAM. Why should the Taiwanese know anything about what Micron is doing?
Simply put, the article is a pump article for Taiwanese DRAM stocks (like Mosel Vitelic).
-- Carl |
