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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 665.67

-0.9%

4:00 PM EST

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To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (52360)	5/27/2000 11:04:00 PM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (1) of 99985

My magic for valuating stocks is simply to watch for over-reactions. On the buy and sell side. Nothing's a perfect science and a lot of it's hunches. Certainly in a weak declining market one has to get out quick with one's profits. And to stop loss. But when generally healthy sector leaders making good profits plummet on short-term fears there are many buying opportunities both short and long term. Believing the market will eventually correct irrationalities (high and low) may be dangerous in the short-term but can be very profitable longer term. I disagree with the extent of pessimism I sense now. It's just gotten overblown. The flip side of irrational exuberance is irrational pessimism. As if no investment is wise or safe and as if profits in shorting are going to go on forever. Some people say the Naz is going to plummet well below 3000. I'd be surprised if it drops from here at all. And if it does I'd be inclined to buy those quality stocks hit hardest. Of course quality is in the eye of the beholder.

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