Ratbert,
So lets turn it around and say that Willy executes according to plan. What does this mean for AMD?
What is the plan? I think the plan was to sell hundreds of thousands in 2H 2000. Then there was another plan that called for I believe 2 million Willys in 2000.
If Intel meets plan 1 (and all variables on which it depends are in place), AMD will have a great year. The success will not even depend on Mustang core being released on time, since Thunderbird / Duron should do just fine, and AMD should gain market share.
If Intel meets plan 2 (and all variables on which it depends are in place), AMD's should still do well, but the future will depend on Mustang being on time and being competitive with Willy. You can assign your probability to that, but there is just very little data available. You can read the paper that Hans published. He compiled the data that is available about the designs of these CPUs, their likely per clock performance, the process technologies and likely clock speeds.
Of course there is a third possibility of Intel not being able to deliver Willy in 2000, chipsets not being ready, motherboards not working, not RDRAM shortage, and under this scenario, AMD will print money.
Then we have the doomsday scenario of recession in 2H 2000, Intel performing superbly, demand low so that Intel catches up with it, and AMD being late with Mustang, Mustang not improving clock speeds enough, and AMD ending up fighting for crumbs again.
Joe |
