Tek (Merlin),
Re: Standards and the Gorilla Game: The Dynamics Of Setting Standards In High-Tech Markets - A Chasm Group Slide Presentation (36 slides)
fuji.stanford.edu
This 36 slide presentation is a good supplement to Geoffrey Moore's Trilogy and particularly The Gorilla Game. It was referenced on this thread some time ago, but I think it is worth referencing again.
It reviews the technology adoption cycle but relates the adoption of standards to it.
Fellow threadsters have had to listen to Cha2 and I prattle on about standards as they relate to CDMA (Qualcomm) v. competitive technologies (GSM & TDMA), and possibly wonder what is the significance of these conversations. The significance is that the standards process has a significant impact on Qualcomm shareholders.
Standards setting and the technology adoption cycle go hand in hand when we are are talking about the competitive advantage of proprietary open architectures (a gorilla characteristic) v. commitee-controlled architectures, and this is where Qualcomm has a significant advantage over other companies engaged primarily in wireless such as Ericcson & Nokia, or partially in wireless such as Motorola, Lucent & Nortel.
Geoff addresses this subject in Chapter 3 of the RFM (Page 52). He only devotes 3 pages to it, but it is a good place to stick a page point, and on those pages I have more highlighted text than unhighlighted. This is an area of the book that I wish he would expand on. I think he is particularly weak on "commitee-controlled architectures".
This slide presentation is evidently meant to expand on the 3 pages in the RFM. It is very good but very high level. Having heard Geoff speak on several occasions using PowerPoint slides to guide the presentation, I would guess that his presentation around the 36 slides could easily run well over an hour and perhaps approach 2 hours. The presentation referenced here is PowerPoint converted to HTML so there are no speaker notes. I would most definitely like to sit through a complete presentation.
What does this all have to do with Qualcomm and CDG?
The "Holy Wars" have been not only about the clash of a Discontinuous Innovation v. Continuous Innovation, or the EU v. the US, they have been about the clash of a Proprietary Open Architecture v. commitee-controlled architectures and regulatory agencies that are peripherally involved in standards setting or adoption.
Slide 5 says: Discontinuous innovations foster new power structures ... if they get adopted. This relates to the ITU's tough stance on having ERICY & QCOM settle their IP differences, the ERICY/QCOM accord, the compromise on chip rate, the adoption of a physical smart card based SIM/R-UIM rather than a logical equivalent, ongoing spectrum issues, harmonization, etc.
One of the reasons that Qualcomm is today 100% of the wireless portion of my portfolio is that they, unlike their competitors, are the driving force behind and enabler of a discontinuous innovation that has a proprietary open architecture, and they have more than held their own in committee and in battles with competitors that base their architecture on the needs of the participants in committees. Qualcomm has compromised when necessary in these battles (occasionally a tad late, or in the nick of time, depending on your perspective).
The battles are not yet over. 3GPP (UMTS/WCDMA) has released an initial standard. The standard will evolve in phases through the end of this decade. 3GPP2 (cdma2000) has released an initial standard. This standard will also evolve in phases at least through through the first half of this decade. The ITU has approved both (and 3 others) under IMT-2000. OHG is trying to harmonize these. Qualcomm & CDG have been denied participation in 3GPP. They whine & moan publicly about this. 3GPP has established terms by which Qualcomm & CDG can participate in 3GPP2. One of these days Qualcomm & CDG will except these terms. This will mark a partial cessation in the Holy Wars. Qualcomm & CDG are not quite ready to accept the terms. I trust Dr. Jacobs judgment in this matter.
I have made this post overly long, but I think the slides referenced are important, and I think mobile wireless telephony represents an excellent case study to illustrate the Gorilla Advantage.
... and make no mistake about it. Qualcomm is a Gorilla, and they are doing just fine in the Holy Wars.
- Eric - |
