Odd.
The pivotal news was Japan and DDI, not China. QCOM's technology, as it stands, will roll out in Japan. Including HDR. If this remains the case, game and match. Everybody will have to pull 'em down, and show what they've got. Timetables, and projected hypothetical timetables will come into focus. My greatest concern is the pressure that is most certainly being placed on DDI to revert to WCDMA.
If DDI CDMA happens, stories will have to change, and today's reasons will be betrayed as political, not scientific.
The WCDMA gamble is a gamble for time. The only way to possibly win this gamble is to stall CDMA. Deceptions can continue only as long as QCOM is not allowed to compete ALONGSIDE GSM now. I suspect GSM/CDMA roaming is very near. The imperative for one technology will wane.
I can't recall the name, but QCOM bought into a small, English telco company awhile ago, without any fanfare, involved with GSM. I recall that a transfer if IP was part of the deal. I bet there was a good reason.
Concerning WCDMA - fine and good, except Europe is trying to stall it as long as possible. In the end, however, still game and match. I believe IJ that there is no upgrade from GSM. Also, WCDMA grew from CDMA - without, and not for the purposes of improvement. The whistles and modifications that hang like leaches from the body of CDMA do not reflect a superior intelligence. No one will be better at WCDMA innovation than QCOM, BECAUSE WCDMA IS FUNDAMENTALLY CDMA, and innovation will be based on understanding the core technology. NOK, ERICY, etc. are thinking about how to win infrastructure contracts and wrap fashionable covers on phones. QCOM is doing science all day, every day. QCOM will build the best chips. QCOM will discover what CDMA becomes. I bet they're working on it now.
China is smoke. I am wary of Cena at SSB (ie: WCOM), but he has China right. China will play both the US and Europe, probably resulting in half-measures for both. Timetables will continue to be suspect, China will remain, from our and Europe's perspective an unstable trading partner. No fast track to 3G (Do they really want all of that unrestrained bandwidth shooting around anyway??). China will follow.
QCOM is being pushed down by remarkably loud, perhaps suspect analyst calls and bear market momentum. My ONLY concern at this point is DDI sticking to the program.
regards to all
blg |
