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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly?
MSFT 472.79-0.4%12:54 PM EST

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To: Yaacov who wrote (45574)5/28/2000 9:07:00 PM
From: Dan3  Read Replies (3) of 74651
 
Re: but please tell me how did it hurt the public?

It's not relevant to the stock price. My point was that splitting Microsoft into 2 companies will not remove its license to print money. Splitting it into 3 parts would have confused things enough to possibly slow down the juggernaut, but 2 parts is a fairly straightforward separation and won't even slow things down. The two parts will each maintain clear monopolies in their respective spaces, and be able to continue to make monopoly profits.

By the way, there are many legal monopolies and a monopoly in and of itself isn't necessarily illegal. Monopoly is an economic term as well as a legal one. Any company that makes more than a market return on capital is exercising a monopoly on something pretty much by definition. A copyright or patent is a legal monopoly, as is ownership of income producing real property.

If Microsoft weren't facing a breakup, it was probably facing 20+ years of scrutiny by some regulator - and that was the most likely outcome going into the trial. It could have been quite harmful. My guess is that Bill Gates has once again demonstrated his brilliance in business and political economy by instead goading Judge Jackson into a meaningless "final split" that will leave Microsoft free to continue to run its business in exactly the same manner it has for the last 2 decades - and will also get the regulators off its back.

I went long Microsoft only after hearing that the most likely outcome was a split into 2 parts. IMHO, that is the most bullish possible outcome for MSFT. I've never held any Microsoft before, now I'm holding out of the money calls. Maybe I'm wrong, but it's a conclusion I'm willing to put money on.

Regards,

Dan
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