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To: shamsaee who wrote (20014)	5/29/2000 3:30:00 AM
From: lurqer	Read Replies (2) of 35685

Given that the porch is a very hospitable and that you have posted here before, I've chosen to respond to you here rather than on G&K. As I said in the post to which you responded I believe a detailed discussion of ST techniques and strategies on this (the G&K) thread is about as appropriate as taking a "boombox" to church/mosque/temple and since a response to your query I am curious if you are fully invested at the moment.If not when did you start scaling back on your investments and what were the reasons. necessitates such a discussion, I hope you don't mind the change. As I've stated on this thread (and elsewhere), for me the ST and LT games are radically different. The way to succeed in a LTB&H strategy is to remain invested as long as you believe the secular bull market is intact. Now clearly if I was prescient and knew in January what I know now, I would have behaved differently. Not having such abilities, I follow the rules and in my LTB&H portfolio have remained invested. OTOH earlier this year, the Y2K liquidity produced a bubble that made many of the monetary and sentiment indicators I follow go "off scale". As I've mentioned earlier on this thread that caused me to initiate the largest short position (using options) I've ever undertaken on the last two days of February. Now I'm no great trader and even though the indicators were off scale I assure you I was very concerned from the end of February to when the market collapsed. Perhaps you don't recall but although the market peaked on March 10th, it rallied again in the latter part of the month. I remember because it was very painful to me at the time. As opposed to a true bear, I still believe we're in a secular bull market. While I'll trade the volatility, I'll "stash" the profits in stocks (mostly those mentioned on G&K) that are currently cheap but IMO will recover nicely once this correction is over. In other words I believe this year is more akin to '94 than '74 and we are not entering a secular bear. That doesn't mean that I think the next rally will be the start of multi-year bull move. Rather I fear we may see several false dawns before the real one arrives. But if played correctly these are opportunities for building the LTB&H portfolio of your dreams. In any event I applaud your attempts to increase your understanding and wish you well. Hanging around... lurqer

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