Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)

QCOM 165.13

+1.1%

Nov 26 3:59 PM EST

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To: qbull who wrote (72694)	5/29/2000 9:36:00 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (4) of 152472

the pessimism around here is so thick that the stock must be at or near its low. Be careful about what you deem pessimism. When I was pessimistic I stopped posting here altogether and sold my Q. The fact that I am posting here at all is actually bullish. I have come back here cuz the stock's selloff has been so sharp that I anticipate a rebound. However, I believe the co. must regain Wall St.'s respect based on actual merits; not hype. China is hype. cdma2000 is hype. I want to see a valuation level that completely discounts these two prospects, along with pie-in-the-sky wish-list items like a CDMA overlay in Europe, cdmaOne in the Euro 450MHz spectrum, and incredible revenues from HDR (yes, HDR--it will roll out in some form of course, but people who think it's going to kill cable/DSL--LOL!!!!!). As a QCOM investor, I think it is important to ask: what if cdma2000 dies on the vine? What if the whole world goes with W-CDMA, and in fact QCOM receives lower royalty payments on W-CDMA than investors were led to believe? On top of that, what if QCOM is not especially competitive in W-CDMA ASICs? Meaning market share (obviously, but bigger pie) and (more important) operating margin decline? What is the level where the stock finds support on valuation? IS-95B is the here-and-now. That is where the stock needs to find value. At the point where an investor is paying only for the current cash flows on a reasonable level, China/cdma2000/WCDMA royalties/blahblahblah can be thought of as free call options on the future. To me, that's the best time to invest.

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