More from George Gilder on why "Qualcomm will win." Posted today on Gildertech.com.
date: 5/29/00 11:36:46 AM
We should do a chart at some point, but the differences reduce to the "direct sequence" form of the WCDMA coherent five megahertz band and the CDMA2000 three "direct sequences" of 1.25 megahertz bonded together. CMDA2000 comprises a 3.75 megahertz band to preserve compatibility with IS95 and HDR. Contrary to WCDMA claims, the Qualcomm 1.25 megahertz is nearly optimal and the wider spread of WCDMA still yields inferior performance to the bonded system. Unfortunately for the anti-Qualcomm forces, broadband wireless is still an "undershoot" technology (the market demands leading edge performance, not political claims).
If I could give some advice after eight years of immersion in these debates, I would urge a deaf ear to the endless detailed claims of superiority which the anti-Qualcomm forces will propagate. CDMA is hard, and Qualcomm engineers know how to do it. HDR shows they can even do TDM better than the GSM people can. (At Linkabit, the Qualcomm people invented TDMA also). Though HDR is code division between sectors, it is an adaptable dynamic TDM system for each connection. The reason for the TDM choice is the spreading code for a 2 megabit per second channel would be some 200 megahertz, which is not today technically feasible at reasonable cost.
In response to an earlier post holding that I lack a grasp of Gorilla theory and its stress on barriers to entry,
I admit I don't believe in legal barriers and consensual standards. Execution is absolutely vital; standards, like history texts, are written by the winners. 3Com, Intel, Microsoft, Applied Materials et al won not because of some legal monopoly but because they moved first and sustained their learning curve ahead of all followers. 3Com failed not because the Ethernet standard failed but because Synoptics outperformed them with the innovation of 10BaseT (Ethernet over twisted pair). Qualcomm will win because they are masters of the technology that all agree will be the foundation of the wireless internet. WCDMA is not a significant innovation; it is a political play. In the end, as I said, politics will give way to the exacting practicalities of creating broadband CDMA systems that can handle voice and data robustly at once.
--GG
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