Brian,
<< Anyone interested in a weekend discussion on portfolio restructuring ... next steps? >>
Might not hurt to look at the G&K Index. Not only 10 great quality companies but it gives one an appreciation of what balance can do to a portfolio in Bear markets.
<< disaster survivor ... Mike Buckley ... QCOM is getting near the value stock range ... $50 would be value territory ... worst performer YTD in my portfolio ... still represents 52% of my portfolio ... my value hunter instinct says, buy more Q!>>
At 52% I am not sure you need more Q regardless of the "value". But portfolio balance is a matter of personal judgment. Rebalancing at end of year to allow no more than 20% in any equity has always served me well over the long haul (but that is just my personal discipline).
<< I like LindyBill's idea with his Russian Army approach: Feed your winners, starve your losers. On that basis, I would be culling out the Q and adding to my SEBL and NTAP >>
You might want to consider that, and you might want to consider some EMC to balance the NTAP. MSFT might be the value stock of all at this point in time (I temporarily folded it and parked proceeds over in JDSU for the interim because I personally think JDSU will recover faster).
PMCS (although not on our index) is one fine executing specialized semiconductor company and you might want to do some DD on it, and I guarantee INTC is not going to crash in the near future.
Your profile shows no CSCO? If CSCO was not already 22% of my portfolio I would be adding at todays prices (like I did in March 1997 and October 1998, even though I was + 20% in each of those instances. I consider CSCO to be the mother of all Gorillas.
Lindy is a pretty savvy cat with incredible instincts. I watched his all QCOM Russian Army maneuver with awe, and with equal awe when he abruptly reversed direction this spring. Lindy sure knows when to hold em, and knows when to fold em (or rebalance them).
The NAZ was hot, wireless was hotter, QCOM hottest. Momentum replaced reason. Things cooled. Lindy was observant. He pulls the trigger FAST. The index, the sector, and QCOM, will all run again. I consider it the premier wireless entity. QCOM looks good at these prices, and might make a good entry point for someone who has no position in wireless. We are however, not even begun the dog days of summer. I think we will see lower on all NAZ stocks before election time. Hope not.
<< I am not really looking for personal portfolio advice, only interested in your thought processes on the best Gorillas and Kings to ride when the market starts back up >>
I know this is not what you asked for but you might want to give some thought to portfolio balance and a tad more diversification. Geoff doesn't offer much on portfolio balance (lots of others do), but he uses the terms balance and portfolio balance frequently.
I was 48% QCOM at end of year. I violated my own rule and only took it to 36% at year end (selling at $180) and like Lindy I funded new positions in SEBL and NTAP with the proceeds.
I eventually took QCOM to 20% in March/April (selling at around $140) for more SEBL and some PMC at pretty good prices comaratively (on big dips).
QCOM is 17.5% of my portfolio today. If its as good as I think it is it will be + 20% at year end, but it is in pretty fine company. But forget year end, I am thinking several years out. Qualcomm is a "young" Gorilla. It is as Merlin points out, likely to be a tad more volatile than the more mature gorillas.
BTW: I sleep GREAT.
- Eric - |
