OT <<any chance the worse of the market doldrums can be behind us?>>
I would preface my comments by saying that is the big question on everyone's mind. However, if you can stomach the very lil "potential" downside we have, consider the following scenarios:
Greenie has basically the June and August FOMC meetings to either help or hammer the markets. Therefore, we are most likely to get either a 50 or 25 basis pt hike in June following by 25 bp in August. He won't dare do 3 hikes of 50's in a row, regardless of the risk of falling behind. Quite possibly, following the June hike and if we see some weaker econ data, you could have the market rising into the 25 hike in August (if that hike does occur).
There's just too much hanging on the rate hikes. With the election, weak auto sales, and fickle consumers, there's quite frankly enough evidence that the "correction" in the market in combination w/ the rate hikes have had an impact. Just ask your local auto dealer or real estate agent or neighborhood banker whats going on. Things are slowing, Greenie isn't blind to that. One of the best signs I've seen, though not scientific in any regard, is talk among friends/neighbors of cancelling vacations or cutting back on home improvements/remodelling. Perhaps the hikes have shown some impact already.
Regards,
Hasan |
