VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC)

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Trader Ric who wrote (19879)	5/29/2000 11:01:00 PM
From: hhertzfeldjr	Read Replies (1) of 27311

I enjoyed reading your overview of the current market and the fact that so many credit lifelines have been pulled suddenly. I, however, disagree with you on a few of your observations. There is little evidence that Mr. Greenspan and the Federal Reserve can dictate the primary stock market trend over an extended period of time. If we are to be in a bear market the BEAR is to be in charge--not the FED. The BEAR will destroy wealth and dash hopes and dreams far beyond what is "acceptable or reasonable". And it will do it slowly and with uncanny deception. After all it does not want to scare investors away. It wants to destroy as much wealth as it can. The bear will have its way despite the Federal Reserve's announced attempts "to rescue" the stock market's long term investors. Consider this. The bonds and credit markets set the interest rate levels. The Fed is no longer in charge of interest rates levels. The trillions of dollars of debt have dwarfed the power of the Fed to a cheerleader status. All the Fed can do is to follow the market forces by setting the official Discount Rate to a market level that the debt markets will tolerate. The Fed had pumped 10s of billions into the market to encourage interest rates to stay at very low levels for the the last three years. Pumping money into an low inflation economy worked well. The credit markets could tolerate the money pumping process --money inflation --until the price inflation numbers soured. Greenspan truly has had until recently the softest job in the world. Not any more. Now that the rate of inflation is picking up the FED must pull this money out of the economy so that they can set the discount and funds rate to higher levels to slow borrowing and cool down the economy. They have no other option. If they do not make this move the government debt and bond markets will collapse sending interest soaring. And this sends the Federal Deficits to new unacceptable levels that could throw our monetary system into a deep sinkhole. So the bond market dictates interest rates. The Federal Reserve job now must be to soothe the feelings of the credit markets. And the BEAR is free to do what he wishes. Bull markets die from exhaustion. No crisis is necessary for a bear market. No CNBC guru's and Wall Street experts can tell you this. They would lose their investors and their viewers if the investing public realized that there really is very little any government agency or political party or President can do to change the primary trend of the market. So there only one thing that can save you from the Bear. And that is your own decision to pull your money out of the markets. History shows that stocks swoon to unacceptable lows and then soar to unbelievable heights. And each time you hear that "it is different this time" at the top. The feeling that the stock market owes this current generation much more because of who we are" is nothing new. And lastly the only thing that you can count on if we are in a BEAR market is that nothing works like it did in the past. Technical analysis becomes bent up. Support levels for stocks are not reliable. Buying defensive counter trend stocks won't work. There will be some stocks that go higher...but most of them may not. Enough cheer. Harold

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next