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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (25538)5/30/2000 12:25:00 AM
From: Mike Buckley  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
Mucho Maas,

YOur premise about Qualcomm is completely different than mine. Using your premise, you're right that Qualcomm couldn't be a Gorilla. I'll try to explain mine in context of your position.

Must look at entire world cellphone market, and percentage thereof which is in QC's value chain.

I disagree. The fact is that the only part of the market I think you're referring to that is not a royalty game is the CDMA sector. Considering the size of the market and that Qualcomm's proprietary innovations of CDMA are discontinuous for TDMA and GSM networks, it's reasonable in my mind to think of the CDMA market as a gorilla game. Once one assumes that, it's pretty difficult to explain why Qualcomm wouldn't be the Gorilla of it.

Contention of Gorilla status for QCOM ultimately rests on the assumption of a smooth transition from Chimp hegemony in IS-95 to Gorilla hegemony in W-CDMA.

As I hope I clarified above, we disagree. In fact, if I understand IS-95 properly (and it's probable that I along with all the other carpetologists don't) all of IS-95 as a category is not a gorilla game. If I'm right about that, there is no chimp in it because chimps only play gorilla games, not royalty games.

--Mike Buckley
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