Mike, thanks for your considered reply.
The fact is that the only part of the market I think you're referring to that is not a royalty game is the CDMA sector.
OK, I understand your distinction. Perhaps I should rephrase my position. There is a CDMA GG value chain, and a GSM/IS-136 royalty value chain. We know there is this thing called "3G" coming, and we've all heard it's going to be "CDMA". Ergo (the thinking seems to go), 3G CDMA is a gorilla game, with QCOM as the once and future simian.
The problem I see with this logic is that it seems to me that 3G CDMA could end up being just a royalty game. Certainly, participants will have IPR agreements with each other, and QC could be a net beneficiary. But I don't know if it will benefit in the degree necessary to be considered a gorilla. In fact, I don't think anybody "knows" this. All that is certain is that a lot of very powerful companies are working very hard to make sure it doesn't happen. Perhaps that is fairly subjective, but I think it is worth considering.
It seems to me, in terms of would-be 3G architects, there is QCOM, and there is The World. QCOM is championing its own version of 3G, which nobody seems particularly interested in. Meanwhile, The World is making a different version. QCOM says royalties will be the same, so they don't care. LOL. I'll believe it when I see it. Looks to me like the big boys are working very hard to exclude QC from the party.
They may or may not succeed in marginalizing QCOM. But there are two points to this type of action that I think are relevant:
1) They are trying to marginalize QCOM
2) They may succeed
You could say any Gorilla faces similar challenges, so perhaps again it is a matter of degree. I just feel there is a degree of uncertainty surrounding these matters for QCOM that makes me question whether "Gorilla" is the appropriate term. |
