Scumbria,
One thing I was thinking about is the inventory of Thunderbirds and Durons. According to my calculation, assuming average of 300 wpw in Dresden in Q1, AMD should have between 400,000 and 500,000 copper Thunderbirds in stock ready for lunch. I don't know how many we have from Austin, but let's assume it's a non-trivial number such as 100,000 - 200,000 units.
Duron is more of an unknown. It will not be much of a factor in Q2 (since Q2 is probably already in the bag), but there may be quite a few Durons out there during launch, on June 26th. Since there were rumors of launch in late April, AMD must have had a non-trivial number of chips on hand (in die form), at least 200,000 with production continuing throught the quarter at a rate of I guess 100,000 to 200,000 per quarter. So there may be at least 500,000 Durons ready for launch.
So in the summer, we will see a flood of AMD chips in the marketplace, all selling at good ASPs.
Joe |
