When I was pessimistic I stopped posting here altogether and sold my Q. The fact that I am posting here at all is actually bullish.
Please go back to pessimism...
I want to see a valuation level that completely discounts these two prospects, along with pie-in-the-sky wish-list items like a CDMA overlay in Europe, cdmaOne in the Euro 450MHz spectrum, and incredible revenues from HDR...
You forgot a pony, and a Spiderman decoder ring, and a free lifetime pass to Disneyworld... If revenue from HDR is on your pie-in-the-sky wish list, then you obviously don't believe what QCOM management is saying, and therefore shouldn't be in the stock. Of course, you never were in the stock, just Q Call Options, but that's splitting hairs...
I think it is important to ask: what if cdma2000 dies on the vine? What if the whole world goes with W-CDMA, and in fact QCOM receives lower royalty payments on W-CDMA than investors were led to believe? On top of that, what if QCOM is not especially competitive in W-CDMA ASICs?
Great questions, ranking up there in likelihood with the sun coming up in the West, Botswana winning the speed skating events at the next Winter Olympics, and Bill Clinton winning a third term as President. CDMA2000 is the best choice for current IS-95 operators, so what are the chances of it dying on the vine? Slim and none. QCOM management has stated their position on royalty rates for 3G CDMA systems. Do you believe them or not? QCOM is the most proficient seller of CDMA ASICS in the world. Who is going to knock them off their pedestal?
IS-95B is the here-and-now. That is where the stock needs to find value.
The market is forward looking. Nokia isn't trading on current here-and-now, but future potential as well (i.e. their forward looking 12 month PE is slightly greater than 1). As is Lucent, Ericsson, Motorola, and just about everyone else. To say that QCOM needs to sell on a price based on nothing but IS-95B is just a potential buyer's wishful thinking.
DWB |
