>>Has Moore previously intimated that JDSU is or might be a Gorilla?<<
This has come up on this board before, and in fact, you questioned it when it did! This is the history, as I know it: An article which appeared 12/22/99 said that Moore called JDSU a young gorilla in the making. From that article:
moneycentral.msn.com
>> Moore suggests that tech investors wait until the period of huge growth begins
before investing. At that point, investors should divide their money among all
legitimate contenders for sector leadership. When a single "gorilla" emerges,
shift the other holdings there. This position is held until the technology that
created the "gorilla" becomes obsolete.
The Gorilla Game strategy has a few interesting
twists: It means ignoring valuation, since finding
the long-term winner is more important than finding
the current relative bargains. It expects investors to
spread their money around all contenders, at least
for a while, not attempt to ferret out favorites. It
requires that investors miss out on a sector's early
gains. And it requires a long-term holding period.
Moore suggests that Qualcomm (QCOM, news,
msgs), with its CDMA cell-phone technology, and
fiber-optic components company JDS Uniphase
(JDSU, news, msgs) are possible young gorillas in
the making, joining such established gorillas as
Microsoft (MSFT, news, msgs), Intel (INTC, news,
msgs), Cisco Systems (CSCO, news, msgs), Oracle (ORCL, news, msgs) and SAP
(SAP, news, msgs). <<
Moore's observation regarding JDSU was repeated in a Fool article on 1/5/00:
fool.com
from that article:
>> Finally, let's look at JDSU's business model and compare it to some of our other Rule
Makers, as I feel that this may provide some insight into the company's ability to succeed
in the future. In some ways, I see JDSU as a combination of two of our other technology
holdings: Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) and Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO). Intel's dynamic
growth started when it moved from manufacturing memory chips to manufacturing the
key components found in personal computers. Similarly, JDSU's business model is
directed towards enabling it to become the leading supplier of optical components.
Like Cisco and its range of Internet infrastructure equipment, JDSU aims to be an
end-to-end supplier of optical components. This strategy was further exemplified by
Uniphase's merger in mid-1999 with JDS Fitel, a supplier of passive components for
optical networks (Uniphase makes active components). Essentially, JDSU has positioned
itself as the primary supplier of components that light up, run, maintain, and control the
advanced fiber optic systems of the future. One big difference between Cisco and JDSU
is that JDSU sells its products to equipment manufacturers while Cisco's products are
sold to end-users.
As a matter of fact, I recently read that The Gorilla Game author Geoffrey Moore
believes that JDSU is a possible young gorilla in the making, which is a title currently
bestowed upon Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Intel, Cisco, Oracle (Nasdaq: ORCL),
and SAP (NYSE: SAP). With $1 billion in sales, JDSU is such a large player in its
industry that it is bigger by 50 percent than the rest of the independent component
makers -- COMBINED! <<
Later, on 2/11/00 Moore made a post on his GG listserve that is also relevant:
From: "Geoffrey Moore" <geoffmoore@chasmgroup.com>
>> What capital markets have become better and better at is pricing in market development models that predict outcomes earlier and earlier in the Technology Adoption Life Cycle. Think of election night. It used to be you counted all the votes and said who was the winner. Then it was that you counted some of the votes and projected the winner. Then it was that you sampled a key demographic subset and you projected the winner. Now it is you interview a key subset on exiting the polls and declare the winner. The system gets better and better at projecting outcomes earlier and earlier.
Same in the stock market. P/E is an after-the-fact measure. P/S ratios are a market share measure that "assumes" that P/E will follow. Now we have "P/V" (Price/Vision) ratios that assume that P/S will follow and P/E after that.
The risk, of course, is that the model is wrong. But if the model is right, then getting in earlier makes sense. That is Qualcomm last year, and JDSU --- used our models to act earlier than other investors. <<
The last time any of this was discussed, the conclusion was that JDSU was not ordained a gorilla by Moore, because when asked point blank on the listserv he said that he did not recall what he had said, and he did not know enough about the company to make a determination, but it was his belief that list participants considered it a king.
That brings us to the article mentioned today in which, in an interview, Moore calls QCOM and JDSU "prime examples" of "gorillas".
ecompany.com
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