XOMA. Bull or Bear? Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : XOMA. Bull or Bear?

XOMA 32.93

+2.9%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Bluegreen who wrote (13718)	5/30/2000 2:13:00 PM
From: aknahow	Read Replies (1) of 17367

My quick analysis of potential AGN sales. Eye care amounts to $571 million but 48% of this is Glacoma related and not anti infective. So at the most total anti infective AGN sales are about $275 million. If approvals result, I would estimate about $25 million of sales in year 1, $50 million in year 2, $125 million in year 3. What royalty or gross profit split does XOMA receive? We don't have any idea. Assume 35% and one still can see that even in year 3 after product launch one is not looking at much more than $40 million to XOMA. There will be plenty of time to work on these numbers but it would be unwise to think of this agreement with AGN as representing hundreds of millions of dollars to XOMA. If the products are far superior to existing ones then AGN will gain market share. But there will be time enough to refine my estimates. 1999 -------- Specialty Pharmaceuticals: Eye Care Pharmaceuticals $ 571.2 Skin Care 76.6 Botox(R)/Neuromuscular 175.8 Total 823.6 Medical Devices and OTC Product Lines: Ophthalmic Surgical 222.9 Contact Lens Care 359.7 -------- Total 582.6 Total Product Net Sales $1,406.2 ========

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