Bob:
There should be an immediate 10% reduction in gold production. This should have happened last year, but it did not. Without reduced production, gold is ready for another hit. If the short lived rally of last fall was the best that gold could do in an environment of uncertainty over y2k, and the huge short position, then we are set up for the final capitulation in the pog followed by a consolidation of the producers. When this occurrs, some of the premier producers who have been instrumental in helping develop the forward gold sales, will take over the those that will collapse under low gold prices. The result, gold will trade as a commodity with inventories increasing every year, since gold is not consumed but hoarded as either coins, jewelry, or bars. Talk about terrible fundamentals, it doesn't get much worse.
Ken |
