Dale,
I have to agree with much of what you've been writing. The U.S. of today should not be compared to Japan of a few years ago for far too many reasons to go into here. For that matter, there is very little direct correlation between the pressures exerting force on U.S. market of today and those that came to bare on the market of 1929.
I can't believe that Skeeter and Lucretius really expect that the U.S. market will end up with a drop 90% from it's recent highs. To even make such a prognostication for the NASDAQ borders on the absurd, in my opinion. To think that the NASDAQ will trade at the 500 level in the near future borders on the moronic. This shows how some people can make outlandish statements without basis in facts or reality.
There were many, including myself, who thought that the NASDAQ run to 5000 was way overdone and that a healthy correction (or bear) would be the net result. The 40% drop caught many off guard but shouldn't really have surprised anyone who was looking at what the numerous individual markets(commodities, bonds, currency, equities, etc) and CBs plus the FED were doing.
I can't believe that anyone in their right mind thinks that the DOW will trade below 2000 again, which is where it must end up if we are going to have another great crash like 1929.
Tommasso, do you really believe that the U.S. equity market is still so grossly overvalued that the DOW will fall below, say, 7000 soon? What will cause the next wave down? Hyper-inflation? Deflation? Stagflation? World war III?
I appreciate all opinions but some are just so far out of line that they don't deserve much of my time!!!
Best of luck,
Michael |
