MAY 30 INDEX UPDATES
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SHORT-TERM TECHNICAL READINGS:
DOW - MIDRANGE
SPX - OVERBOUGHT REGION
OEX - OVERBOUGHT REGION
NAZ - OVERBOUGHT REGION
NDX - OVERBOUGHT/borderline CLASS 2 SELL SIGNAL
SOX - OVERBOUGHT/borderline CLASS 2 SELL SIGNAL
VIX - 26.64, CLASS 2 BUY(inverse to market)
CBOE PUT:CALL RATIO - .43!!!
5-DAY TRIN - approximately 5.03
In light of the strong rally today my short-term technicals for the overall market is near/in the overbought region already. If the market continues up, I could be getting CLASS 2 SELL signals as early as tomorrow and CLASS 1 SELL signals as early as THUR.
The big issue I have with this rally is that it was on light volume, and I feel that a strong portion of today's rally may have been cause by a short squeeze. This afternoon CNBC interviewed a floor trader on the NYSE who indicated that the institutions did not really participate today.
I have mentioned the recent accuracy of my VIX indicator, which I simply apply my short-term technicals to the VIX. One more up day for the market which would be a down day for the VIX, and I would get a CLASS 1 BUY signal on the VIX(inverse to market) which implies that the OEX is near a short-term top.
WOW, the CBOE PUT:CALL RATIO closed at .43 which is near peak levels, which implies that there is very little FEAR. As a contrarian indicator, thats not good for the overall market.
The 5-DAY TRIN is around 5.00 which is just neutral.
Today was a BIG MARAZUBO, and with the MULT-DAY candlestick pattern, I suspect that tomorrow could be flat or even slightly down. My other stuff is saying that tomorrow should still be up. I wont put too much into it, but I wont totally discount it.
Concerning our MUTUAL FUND ACCOUNT, I kind-of regret not closing the ULPIX positions. Not that I got a signal to sell, just that it was up so much I prefer to take profits. Just watching the GREED FACTOR.
The NAZ GAPPED at the open from 3205 to 3286, a gap of 81 points. I am imclined that this gap should get filled within the next few weeks, possibly before the FOMC meeting.
Unless this rally continues strong for 2-3 more days straight, - sorry but I would doubt its legs.
seeya |
