How high will Microsoft fly? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly?

MSFT 510.37

+1.4%

Nov 14 9:30 AM EST

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To: ThomasG who wrote (45672)	5/30/2000 8:42:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) of 74651

thanks. good article. However, I don't think that discounted cash flow valuation model is useful. As with most models, it fails based on the uncertainty in its assumptions. He says "70% of Microsoft's estimated intrinsic value ($64.57 / $92.83 = 69.6%) is dependent upon its profitability in the distant future (2020 through 2030)." Investors in 2000 don't know (and don't care) what will be happening with MSFT that far into the unknowable future. At best, investors are looking 6-12 months into the future. Often, they don't seem to be looking beyond next week. By 2020, the hot stocks will be medical genetic engineering companies that can custom-design children. "See our showroom for the latest Elvis models, and get a coupon for free I.Q. enhancement with your next child!" Or something equally unthinkable today.

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