Interesting. LL, I have great respect for your knowledge and wisdom, so I find it amusing that we draw somewhat different conclusions from recent experience.
I agree that today might have signalled the bottom (pleasegodpleasepleaseplease), that the upswing was not predictable, and that averaging in is probably a sensible approach to take (even though I'm too impatient to do it). But I conclude from all this that the reasoning in your previous post--
Message 13797587
--was an overly bearish attempt to "call" the bottom and might have induced you to start the buy-in process a bit too late. ("Have we reached the bottom? Who knows, but it's probably close enough to start some cautious dollar averaging.")
If one truly can't predict market direction, then it would seem one should use either of two approaches: buy in and hold regardless of market fluctuations, or use one's own valuation model to buy in at "reasonable" prices regardless of what the market says. The first approach would indicate that new buyers should get in when they have the money to do so, assuming valuations aren't totally absurd. The second approach would indicate that that one should start averaging in whenever the "reasonable" price appears, regardless of whether that is on the way down or on the way up. Neither approach says, "wait for what looks like a bottom and only then start to buy."
FWIW, I had my own (usual) messy experience with market timing today. When I saw Q tanking in the morning, I decided to take advantage and start buying some 03 LEAPS. So I sold some little bits of other stuff to raise cash and tried to purchase the LEAPS via my online Schwab account--using limit orders set in the middle of the bid/ask spread to avoid getting ripped off. (Tip to newbies: using "market" orders on options can be very dangerous, because the options markets are illiquid and the market makers have great leeway to screw you, which they seem to use frequently.)
Well, it turned out that the (*&%@! Schwab website didn't have the new LEAPS symbols in the system yet, so I had to place my orders by phone. In the time it took me to figure all this out, the rally had begun (the common had come up to about 64), and my limit orders were now just below the bid, so I raised them a bit, assuming there would continue to be fluctuation and I'd still make the purchase. Guess what? The damn Q ran away from me, just like it was November again. I didn't chase it, left my limit orders in place in case we have another terrible drop, and happily contemplated the green in my portfolio. But I'm still kind of pissed.
tekboy/Ares@ifonecanbepissedonadayliketoday,whichIcan'tbe.com |
