What do you think 'Asia's' response will be to increased US military presence? Will it be regarded as a 'guarantor of peace' or threatening to the stability of the region?
Ron, your question sure opens the door to a lot of discussion. For example, which Asia? The one with the PRC, the Vietnamese and North Korea? Or the Asia of Japan, Taiwan, S. Korea, and the PI?
Like one of our former State Governors once said, "...this opens a whole box of Pandoras." <g>
The PRC figures that it bought and paid for at least one "Get Out of Jail Free" card from this administration, and if the 7th Fleet goes steaming through the Straits it will not be taken kindly, MFN (oops, I mean PNTR) vote or not. But, they are still a fledgling power insofar as having the ability to project that power. Still, like an adolecent flexing new muscles, there will be a strong desire to exercise their hegemony. For years, they watched the Soviets bluster and threaten to get what they wanted, usually successfully, and now that they have a few ICBMs, they figure the game will probably still work. There are enough hand-wringers around in the US to make it a pretty good gamble.
If the PRC can call in its chits and keep the 7th Fleet away while winning the Senate PNTR vote, they win. If they can manufacture a situation that permits them to "defend themselves" against a real or imaginary threat from the fleet, they win, regardless of how effective their "self defense" might be. From strictly a domestic consumption point of view, they win by blustering whether anybody does anything or not. IMO, the only way they can actually lose anything is by actually mounting forces to invade or punish Taiwan and being defeated in that attempt.
So long as they can strut and act like the 'Cock of the Walk,' they can't lose because there will not be a direct line in the sand drawn (short of actual military action).
What really inspired me to write this post, though, is the notion that it is the US that will stabilize or destabilize Asia. Seems to me that the PRC and N. Korea are taking the actions that have that effect, not America. Whatever happens, we will be responding (or not responding) to the aggressive actions of the communist states in Asia in an effort to maintain a status quo, not to upset some existing Balance of Power. Sorta like some of the news reports out of Miami during the 'Elian Crisis;' some reporters were saying the the presence of the riot cops in the streets provoked the rioters into throwing bottles and rocks. Or, that firearms cause violence. The backwards thinking that produces such comments completely baffles me. It is like saying that malaria produces mosquetoes.
So, I'm going to put Pandora back in her box. :-)
jim |
