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Technology Stocks : Alteon WebSystems Inc-(ATON)
ATON 5.140-5.0%Oct 31 9:30 AM EST

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To: dav who wrote (392)5/31/2000 3:30:00 AM
From: Wizard  Read Replies (2) of 414
 
>>You think ATON will have to seek other partnerships or even buyout or merger later ?

They just signed up Lucent a week or two ago. Nortel makes for an attractive acquirer. ATON doesn't need to sell out though. They have been kicking everyone's butt up and down the block and they will continue to do so... ATON's end market is hitting an inflection point right now. The industry is accelerating its growth sharply and CSCO realized this is a good business and wanted in. It will take a while though for Cisco to integrate ARPT technology. If the market weren't so good, I might be worried but ATON can make a very good business even if Cisco takes share down the road. In the meantime, its clear sailing.

>>I am concern about the long term growth and capacity of the web switching market and ATON as well.

Why? Because the stock is down?? I don't have the industry stats handy so I don't know the market size currently is but I know its going to be revised up. Nobody builds projections based on the vendors all selling everything they build. ATON is sold out. If a customer says they aren't sure what to do, the ATON sales rep says thank you, walks out the door and sells a few boxes to the next guy in line. No need to try to convince a vascillating customer when the market is this white hot.

As you can see, I am bullish on ATON. We will get a market rally before you have to spend much time worrying about Cisco. If the market sustains a big rally sometime between now and year end and ATON doesn't participate then it might be time to reevaluate. However, lets see how the street responds to a few more blowout quarters before we cede everything to Cisco. Cisco is a force but decent sized businesses can be built on Cisco's crumbs.
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