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Pastimes : Home on the range where the buffalo roam

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To: Boplicity who wrote (2047)	5/31/2000 1:39:00 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (2) of 13572

SDLI vs. JDSU: Certainly SDL has had a spectacular run these past few days and might be wanting some consolidation, but over an appreciable period of time, consider: * SDL is growing faster * SDL is growing off a smaller base--easier to maintain fast growth * JDSU still has premium valuation--meaning SDL has room for relative multiple expansion (keep in mind that, because SDL is growing so damn fast, all of the FY01 estimates for it are probably way lowballed) * SDL has less than one-quarter JDSU's market cap (I expect the gap to narrow to one-third) * JDSU is going to have to digest a big company in ETEK * With ETEK, JDSU's market cap will be over 85BB. That's a huge market cap for a co. with JDS' revs/earnings. Also, issue may experience market-cap bloat. At the least, a double from 85BB is 170BB. That is a helluva market cap for a co. with a 2BB run-rate. * Still some uncertainty about KK's departure from JDSU. Uncertainty at the top is not a desirable in my book!!!! * Yesterday's announced supply agreement with SDL is more of a benefit to--guess who?--SDL, the supplier. * SDL got a great deal in PIRI. This may in part be due to JDSU's having to sit on its hands due to ETEK merger (speculation on my part). * SDL still a potential acquisition target, whereas that is out of the picture for JDSU with its huge market cap. Having said that, I hope JDSU does very well. It is the bellwether for the industry. A high market cap for JDSU means a high market cap for SDL is more sustainable. I'm posting this here only as my opinion. I don't want to defend 25 attack responses from JDSU longs. And I won't! Take it for what it's worth and feel free to disagree. PS. SDL is THE ONE.

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