Put 7% of my portfolio into VMFAP today at $14.25. Those are Jan 2003 calls 80s. I would add to Johnd's "reasons to buy" list:
7. management has warned, analysts have downgraded (two rare events for this company), and the stock has reacted to it. That is, the bad news is in the stock; expectations are low.
8. Very recent signs of a slowing economy means the Fed may be done, so the compression of market PEs (especially high PEs) may be over.
9. Although the stock has very recently set new lows on new bad news, it did not gap down. Since the 12/99 top, repeated investor reassessment of the stock has meant large abrupt downmoves. This time, we just had a little dip. Once we broke support at 65, I was expecting to see the stock gap down below 60. It didn't happen, which means there is a large supply of buy-the-dippers (like me), with cash and courage, willing to step in at about these prices.
10. caution: I'm still keeping cash back, for additional purchases, every time the stock drops 5 points from today's buy-point (62 9/16 when I bought those options). Although I don't expect more gap-downs, we may drift to new lows. And hopes of a benign appeals court may be wishful thinking. And hopes that the Fed is through may be wishful thinking. I think the odds are 50:50 that I have dead money for the rest of 2000. Still, I'm buying from here on down, and then holding till at least 2002. |
