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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation
CRSP 56.98+1.1%Nov 5 3:59 PM EST

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To: Torben Noerup Nielsen who wrote (1152)5/31/2000 2:34:00 PM
From: Thomas M.  Read Replies (2) of 52153
 
J Investig Med 2000 Mar;48(2):118-24
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Biotechnology stock prices before public announcements: evidence of insider trading?

Overgaard CB, van den Broek RA, Kim JH, Detsky AS

University of Toronto Program in Clinical Epidemiology and Health Care Research,
Ontario, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Unique financial challenges faced by biotechnology companies
developing therapeutics have contributed to the
creation of a highly sensitive market, where stock prices are capable of great
fluctuation. The potential for significant financial reward
and the nature of the scientific review process make this industry susceptible to illegal
share trading on nonpublic information. We
examined stock prices of biotechnology products before and after announcement of
Phase III clinical trial and Food and Drug
Administration (FDA) Advisory Panel results for indirect evidence of insider trading.
METHODS: Biotechnology stock prices were
recorded for 98 products undergoing Phase III clinical trials and 49 products
undergoing FDA Advisory Panel review between 1990
and 1998. Prices were recorded for 120 consecutive trading days before and after
public announcement of these two events. We
compared the average change in stock price of successful products ('winners') with
unsuccessful products ('losers') before the public
announcement of results for both critical events. RESULTS: The difference between
average stock price change from 120 to 3 days
before public announcement of results of Phase III clinical trial winners (+27%) and
losers (-4%) was highly significant (P = 0.0007).
A similar but non-significant difference was observed between the average stock price
of winning (+27%) and losing products (+13%)
before FDA Advisory Panel review announcements (P = 0.25). CONCLUSIONS:
Our results provide indirect evidence that insider
trading may be common in the biotechnology industry. Clinical investigators may wish
to consider this issue before participating in any
equity position in the biotechnology industry, especially if they are going to perform
research for those companies.

PMID: 10736971, UI: 20201210
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