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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU)

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To: Hank Stamper who wrote (10671)	5/31/2000 6:23:00 PM
From: SJS	Read Replies (2) of 24042

Someone else's technical opinion today:(Briefing.com): ____________ The Nasdaq Composite put together a solid recovery over the last several days which included its largest percentage increase in history on Tuesday. While this clearly was an impressive move, the turnaround merely retraced 50% of May's slide. To get a slightly different slant on the action of late, we thought a technical look at a few important high tech leaders would help put into perspective the underlying strength of this latest rally. The first issue of interest is Oracle (ORCL)($72 1/16). After twice probing the 38% retracement (a measured reversal of a particular rally or decline) of the move off the April 1999 low near $60, it bounced back to near its 50 day moving average. While the inability to sustain a move beyond this barrier ($76) today is not yet considered a serious problem, unless the market can stabilize short term and put together a sustained advance beyond the $80/81 area (trendline off March/April highs and the May range top), the turnaround should be considered nothing more than a temporary reprieve. Applied Materials (AMAT)($83 3/4) is in a similar position. After halting its slide at the 50% retracement off the April 1999 low it has been stymied by its 100 day moving average at $87. The key is for AMAT to breach and maintain a posture above the $93 1/2 zone. This represents the 50 day moving average and the April/May trendline. Cisco Systems (CSCO)($56 7/8) beat a rapid path to congestion and its 200 day moving average in the $51/50 area during its May breakdown. It has a well defined zone between $63 and $66 (50/100 day moving average and March/May trendline) that must fall to improve its near term technical posture. JDS Uniphase (JDSU) ($88 3/16) also bounced off its 200 day moving average but subsequent action is best characterized as consolidative within the April/May range. Follow through interest beyond the $106/107 area (range top and 100 day moving average) is needed to improve the pattern. Although these represent just a small sample of the high tech market leadership, the turnaround thus far reflects nothing more than an overextended recovery rally. Sustained gains beyond the above resistances will be needed to suggest a more concerted buying effort is underway.

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