re: Hard evidence that the economy is slowing is preliminary
True. But, by the time that evidence is clear, confirmed, and everyone knows it, the Nasdaq will be 25% off its lows. Consumer spending is still roaring along, but my guess is that this will be the last indicator to turn.
And, if I'm wrong, and the Fed does 1/2% again while continuing the "risk is toward inflation" bias? I can just hold through a further market drop. I won't use margin until July at the earliest.
Also, with the last Fed hike, the market responded, but only after thinking about it for a couple of days. I can react faster than that. If the Fed says, "we ain't done yet", and the market doesn't immediately tank, I'll be raising cash. My finger will be poised over the "sell" button, while listening to Greenspan on CNBC. I hope you all will politely wait your turn in line. I'd prefer to be the first to the sidelines. |
