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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: tejek who wrote (113602)6/1/2000 12:37:00 AM
From: Charles R  Read Replies (6) of 1573682
 
Ted,

<if AMD has the capability of jumping to 1.5 G right now and be up on Intel by 50%, then I think AMD should go for it.>

This 1.5G rumor has distorted people's thinking. Pushing MHz is not an easy task (both technical and marketing aspects). There is a learning curve that goes with each of the MHz jumps that happen. For AMD to gain market share in a non-disruptive way, MHz ramp should be smooth, linear and aggressive.

How about ignoring the rumors and thinking through issues behind MHz ramp.
- Is is realistic to ramp from 1.0GHz to 1.5GHz in 3 months. Without Dresden we would have been looking for 1.1GHz at this point. How much will the new process help?
- Assume whatever % yield that you think is possible at 1.5GHz. Calculate how many 1.5 GHz parts can be attained with the published 600 WSW number. Is this number sufficient to support multiple OEMs simultaneously or will this be an Intel style "limited edition" launch.
- What is risk of yield loss because the process is being pushed extremely aggressively?
- Guess a number for power dissipation for 1.0 GHz Thunderbirds from Dresden. Calculate incremental dissipation for 1.5 GHz. Can the current package/heatsink handle it? What does it cost to implement a cooling power to dissipate the extra power dissipated by the additional 500MHz? How much more ASP can AMD command for this increased cost?
- What does it cost in terms of power supply to support the extra consumption?

Assuming a 1.5GHz technically on solid ground and is all ready for launch now, let's look at the marketing side:

- With 1.5GHz at the high-end, what should the K6 family be priced at to incentivize OEMs and customers to buy that dog-meat slow part? $20? $30? $40?
- What about the socketed Athlons in the pipeline between 700MHz and 1GHz? What should those be priced at?
- Without any significant business SKUs will these chips move in the consumer sector at good ASPs?
- On the other extreme, let's say this move becomes highly disruptive and no consumer wants to buy anything below 1.0GHz. Will the OEMs be happy when they realize that all of a sudden they may be stuck with weeks worth of AMD/Intel systems inventory that they can't sell without serious discounts and AMD does not have the capacity to supply all the OEMs needs even if they want to switch all the demand from Intel?

One needs to consider all these and many other issues to determine if it make sense for anyone to talk about releasing a 1.5G part when the last part released was 1G.

Chuck
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