Updating spreadsheet described in post above (variations follow):
Assuming EGAN remains at most recent price:
Date EGAN 20 da "=#EGAN INFR INFR premium EGAN pr
close avg shares implied actual act/impl now/avg-3da
3/13 $53.13
3/14 $55.50
3/15 $51.50
3/16 $47.63
3/17 $46.25
3/20 $38.00
3/21 $35.94
3/22 $42.63
3/23 $43.00
3/24 $40.00
3/27 $39.63
3/28 $38.88
3/29 $36.00
3/30 $36.34
3/31 $39.00
4/3 $32.50
4/4 $29.13
4/5 $27.25
4/6 $27.25
4/7 $30.00 39.4766
4/10 $25.00 38.0703
4/11 $23.63 36.4766
4/12 $19.00 34.8516 0.2292 4.35 $6.13 41% 48.1%
4/13 $20.00 33.4703 0.2377 4.75 $5.94 25% 52.5%
4/14 $18.00 32.0578 0.2481 4.46 $5.00 12% 49.3%
4/17 $13.25 30.8203 0.2596 3.44 $4.88 42% 38.0%
4/18 $16.25 29.8359 0.2703 4.39 $5.69 29% 48.6%
4/19 $17.69 28.5891 0.2822 4.99 $6.19 24% 55.2%
4/20 $16.75 27.2766 0.2936 4.92 $6.00 22% 54.3%
4/24 $15.00 26.0266 0.3033 4.55 $5.25 15% 50.3%
4/25 $18.06 24.9484 0.3165 5.72 $6.81 19% 63.2%
4/26 $17.06 23.8578 0.3317 5.66 $6.38 13% 62.6%
4/27 $16.75 22.8953 0.3476 5.82 $6.56 13% 64.4%
4/28 $16.63 21.9094 0.3627 6.03 $6.50 8% 66.6%
5/1 $17.25 20.8219 0.3793 6.54 $6.69 2% 72.3%
5/2 $18.00 20.0969 0.3952 7.11 $6.81 -4% 78.6%
5/3 $16.75 19.4781 0.4130 6.92 $6.56 -5% 76.5%
5/4 $16.94 18.9625 0.4345 7.36 $6.81 -7% 81.3%
5/5 $19.88 18.5938 0.4502 8.95 $7.44 -17% 98.9%
5/8 $21.00 18.1438 0.4645 9.76 $7.13 -27% 107.8%
5/9 $20.63 17.9250 0.4772 9.84 $6.81 -31% 108.8%
5/10 $17.75 17.6313 0.4866 8.64 $6.56 -24% 95.5%
5/11 $17.00 17.5313 0.4987 8.48 $7.00 -17% 93.7%
5/12 $16.75 17.3688 0.5048 8.46 $7.13 -16% 93.4%
5/15 $16.94 17.3156 0.5132 8.69 $7.44 -14% 96.1%
5/16 $17.25 17.5156 0.5161 8.90 $7.75 -13% 98.4%
5/17 $16.81 17.5438 0.5209 8.76 $7.75 -12% 96.8%
5/18 $16.63 17.4906 0.5225 8.69 $7.81 -10% 96.0%
5/19 $15.25 17.4156 0.5166 7.88 $7.56 -4% 87.1%
5/22 $13.25 17.3281 0.5157 6.83 $6.88 1% 75.5%
5/23 $13.25 17.0875 0.5173 6.85 $6.75 -2% 75.8%
5/24 $12.56 16.8625 0.5195 6.53 $6.00 -8% 72.1%
5/25 $11.75 16.6125 0.5222 6.14 $6.13 0% 67.8%
5/26 $10.50 16.3063 0.5295 5.56 $5.44 -2% 61.4%
5/30 $12.25 16.0563 0.5366 6.57 $6.25 -5% 72.6%
5/31 $11.69 15.7406 0.5447 6.37 $6.39 0% 70.4%
6/1 $11.69 15.4875 0.5549 6.49 71.7%
6/2 $11.69 15.2250 0.5635 6.59 72.8%
6/5 $11.69 14.8156 0.5748 6.72 74.3%
6/6 $11.69 14.3500 0.5842 6.83 75.5%
6/7 $11.69 13.9031 0.5943 6.95 76.8%
6/8 $11.69 13.6000 0.6107 7.14 78.9%
6/9 $11.69 13.3344 0.6305 7.37 81.4%
6/12 $11.69 13.0813 0.6508 7.61 84.1%
6/13 $11.69 12.8188 0.6653 7.78 85.9%
6/14 $11.69 12.5406 0.6786 7.93 87.6%
6/15 $11.69 12.2844 0.6917 8.08 89.3%
6/16 $11.69 12.0375 0.7059 8.25 91.2%
6/19 $11.69 11.8594 0.7215 8.43 93.2%
6/20 $11.69 11.7813 0.7366 8.61 95.1%
6/21 $11.69 11.7031 0.7517 8.79 97.1%
6/22 $11.69 11.6594 0.7630 8.92 98.6%
6/23 $11.69 11.6563 0.7680 8.98 99.2%
6/26 $11.69 11.7156 0.7731 9.04 99.9%
6/27 $11.69 11.6875 0.7760 9.07 100.2%
6/28 $11.69 11.6875 0.7762 9.07 100.3%
6/29 $11.69 11.6875 0.7723 9.03 99.8%
6/30 $11.69 11.6875 0.7742 9.05 100.0%
7/3 $11.69 11.6875 0.7742 9.05 100.0%
7/4 $11.69 11.6875 0.7742 9.05 100.0%
7/5 $11.69 11.6875 0.7742 9.05 100.0%
7/6 $11.69 11.6875 0.7742 9.05 100.0%
7/7 $11.69 11.6875 0.7742 9.05 100.0%
=====================================
Assuming EGAN declines 3% per day (corresponds to final price at 67% of trailing 20 day average offest by 3 days):
Date EGAN 20 da "=#EGAN INFR INFR premium EGAN pr
close avg shares implied actual act/impl now/avg-3da
5/25 $11.75 16.6125 0.5222 6.14 $6.13 0% 67.8%
5/26 $10.50 16.3063 0.5295 5.56 $5.44 -2% 61.4%
5/30 $12.25 16.0563 0.5366 6.57 $6.25 -5% 72.6%
5/31 $11.69 15.7406 0.5447 6.37 $6.39 0% 70.4%
6/1 $11.34 15.4700 0.5549 6.29 69.5%
6/2 $11.00 15.1729 0.5635 6.20 68.5%
6/5 $10.67 14.7125 0.5748 6.13 67.8%
6/6 $10.35 14.1799 0.5849 6.05 66.9%
6/7 $10.04 13.6504 0.5963 5.99 66.1%
6/8 $9.74 13.2497 0.6150 5.99 66.2%
6/9 $9.44 12.8719 0.6381 6.03 66.6%
6/12 $9.16 12.4924 0.6628 6.07 67.1%
6/13 $8.89 12.0898 0.6829 6.07 67.1%
6/14 $8.62 11.6582 0.7029 6.06 67.0%
6/15 $8.36 11.2356 0.7243 6.06 66.9%
6/16 $8.11 10.8098 0.7484 6.07 67.1%
6/19 $7.87 10.4406 0.7761 6.10 67.5%
6/20 $7.63 10.1596 0.8053 6.14 67.9%
6/21 $7.40 9.8671 0.8370 6.19 68.5%
6/22 $7.18 9.5980 0.8666 6.22 68.8%
6/23 $6.96 9.3587 0.8906 6.20 68.5%
6/26 $6.75 9.1714 0.9170 6.19 68.5%
6/27 $6.55 8.8865 0.9427 6.18 68.3%
6/28 $6.36 8.6199 0.9668 6.14 67.9%
6/29 $6.16 8.3613 0.9866 6.08 67.2%
6/30 $5.98 8.1105 1.0182 6.09 67.3%
7/3 $5.80 7.8672 1.0497 6.09 67.3%
7/4 $5.63 7.6311 1.0821 6.09 67.3%
7/5 $5.46 7.4022 1.1156 6.09 67.3%
7/6 $5.29 7.1801 1.1501 6.09 67.3%
7/7 $5.14 6.9647 1.1857 6.09 67.3%
7/10 $4.98 6.7558 1.2224 6.09 67.3%
7/11 $4.83 6.5531 1.2602 6.09 67.3%
7/12 $4.69 6.3565 1.2991 6.09 67.3%
7/13 $4.55 6.1658 1.3393 6.09 67.3%
7/14 $4.41 5.9809 1.3807 6.09 67.3%
===============================
Assuming EGAN is down and up and down 3% per day for ten days at a time:
Date EGAN 20 da "=#EGAN INFR INFR premium EGAN pr
close avg shares implied actual act/impl now/avg-3da
5/25 $11.75 16.6125 0.5222 6.14 $6.13 0% 67.8%
5/26 $10.50 16.3063 0.5295 5.56 $5.44 -2% 61.4%
5/30 $12.25 16.0563 0.5366 6.57 $6.25 -5% 72.6%
5/31 $11.69 15.7406 0.5447 6.37 $6.39 0% 70.4%
6/1 $11.34 15.4700 0.5549 6.29 69.5%
6/2 $11.00 15.1729 0.5635 6.20 68.5%
6/5 $10.67 14.7125 0.5748 6.13 67.8%
6/6 $10.35 14.1799 0.5849 6.05 66.9%
6/7 $10.04 13.6504 0.5963 5.99 66.1%
6/8 $9.74 13.2497 0.6150 5.99 66.2%
6/9 $9.44 12.8719 0.6381 6.03 66.6%
6/12 $9.16 12.4924 0.6628 6.07 67.1%
6/13 $8.89 12.0898 0.6829 6.07 67.1%
6/14 $9.15 11.6848 0.7029 6.43 71.1%
6/15 $9.43 11.3155 0.7243 6.83 75.5%
6/16 $9.71 10.9697 0.7484 7.27 80.3%
6/19 $10.00 10.7073 0.7743 7.74 85.6%
6/20 $10.30 10.5598 0.7996 8.24 91.0%
6/21 $10.61 10.4277 0.8248 8.75 96.7%
6/22 $10.93 10.3460 0.8450 9.23 102.1%
6/23 $11.26 10.3213 0.8568 9.64 106.6%
6/26 $11.59 10.3759 0.8677 10.06 111.2%
6/27 $11.94 10.3605 0.8746 10.44 115.4%
6/28 $12.30 10.3911 0.8766 10.78 119.2%
6/29 $11.93 10.4207 0.8720 10.40 115.0%
6/30 $11.57 10.4495 0.8733 10.11 111.7%
7/3 $11.23 10.4774 0.8708 9.77 108.0%
7/4 $10.89 10.5045 0.8683 9.45 104.5%
7/5 $10.56 10.5308 0.8659 9.15 101.1%
7/6 $10.24 10.5563 0.8636 8.85 97.8%
7/7 $9.94 10.5810 0.8614 8.56 94.6%
7/10 $9.64 10.6049 0.8592 8.28 91.5%
7/11 $9.35 10.6282 0.8571 8.01 88.6%
7/12 $9.07 10.6241 0.8551 7.76 85.7%
7/13 $8.80 10.5926 0.8532 7.51 83.0%
7/14 $8.53 10.5339 0.8513 7.27 80.3%
=====================================
Finally, assuming EGAN is up-dn-up:
Date EGAN 20 da "=#EGAN INFR INFR premium EGAN pr
close avg shares implied actual act/impl now/avg-3da
5/25 $11.75 16.6125 0.5222 6.14 $6.13 0% 67.8%
5/26 $10.50 16.3063 0.5295 5.56 $5.44 -2% 61.4%
5/30 $12.25 16.0563 0.5366 6.57 $6.25 -5% 72.6%
5/31 $11.69 15.7406 0.5447 6.37 $6.39 0% 70.4%
6/1 $12.04 15.5050 0.5549 6.68 73.8%
6/2 $12.40 15.2781 0.5635 6.99 77.2%
6/5 $12.77 14.9229 0.5748 7.34 81.1%
6/6 $13.15 14.5307 0.5836 7.68 84.8%
6/7 $13.55 14.1769 0.5922 8.02 88.7%
6/8 $13.96 13.9871 0.6063 8.46 93.5%
6/9 $14.37 13.8558 0.6227 8.95 98.9%
6/12 $14.81 13.7586 0.6382 9.45 104.4%
6/13 $15.25 13.6742 0.6469 9.86 109.0%
6/14 $15.71 13.5971 0.6530 10.26 113.4%
6/15 $15.24 13.5182 0.6576 10.02 110.7%
6/16 $14.78 13.4259 0.6617 9.78 108.1%
6/19 $14.34 13.3802 0.6654 9.54 105.4%
6/20 $13.91 13.4129 0.6693 9.31 102.9%
6/21 $13.49 13.4249 0.6739 9.09 100.5%
6/22 $13.08 13.4509 0.6762 8.85 97.8%
6/23 $12.69 13.4980 0.6746 8.56 94.6%
6/26 $12.31 13.5885 0.6740 8.30 91.7%
6/27 $11.94 13.5730 0.6727 8.03 88.8%
6/28 $11.58 13.5678 0.6703 7.76 85.8%
6/29 $11.93 13.5624 0.6659 7.94 87.8%
6/30 $12.29 13.5568 0.6666 8.19 90.5%
7/3 $12.66 13.5511 0.6669 8.44 93.3%
7/4 $13.04 13.5452 0.6671 8.70 96.1%
7/5 $13.43 13.5391 0.6674 8.96 99.0%
7/6 $13.83 13.5329 0.6677 9.23 102.1%
7/7 $14.25 13.5264 0.6680 9.52 105.2%
7/10 $14.67 13.5198 0.6683 9.81 108.4%
7/11 $15.11 13.5130 0.6686 10.10 111.7%
7/12 $15.57 13.5059 0.6689 10.41 115.1%
7/13 $16.03 13.5458 0.6692 10.73 118.6%
7/14 $16.51 13.6326 0.6696 11.06 122.2%
==========================
What really happens is anybody's guess. INFR earnings out today. Proxy materials arrived recently for voting. Meeting set for vote, etc. June 26th. Time marches on.
