Hi Jules, absolutely fascinating: I'm a VOD investor for precisely the reasons you (very clearly) articulate. To paraphrase: only a company with VOD's scale can leverage economies that will produce a big time bottom line. In effect, both of us see the need for scale in order to produce a globally unified wireless network which in turn will produce nirvana for the traveling customer. That in turn will produce more customers, etc.
Ironically, the very industry that should benefit more than any other from "the network effect" is the wireless telecom industry. Yet, as we know, it's a Tower of Babel out there and we have a very sub-optimal technology deployment now, and a rocky road (i.e., slow) for the future. I think VOD is big enough to IMPOSE a standard and that standard will be CDMA. In effect, I'm looking for VOD to be the Wintel. It will begin by consolidating its CDMA kingdoms in Australia, the US, and Latin America. It will watch or participate directly as Asia, already a CDMA stronghold, completes its buildout and likely becomes the first 3G market. And then what will Europe be? A fortress surrounded by CDMA. At that point, VOD will move to bring Europe in line with the rest of its worldwide platform. Hey, I can dream, right? best, mike doyle |
