MDA - Market Direction Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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To: TheKelster who wrote (52694)	6/1/2000 9:31:00 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) of 99985

TK, thanks for the charts...i agree btw. - the term bear market does not properly describe what has happened. if one disregards the Q1 blow-off in the NAZ, virtually everything is still in bull territory. in fact it could be argued that no correction at all has occurred. it looks more and more like a consolidation before renewed take-off (admittedly the NAZ chart DOES look bad, but since none of the other indices have really gone down much, i tend not to worry too much about that...valuations are still sky-high all around). it looks to me as if the market is getting ready to flip Greenspan the bird again - knowing full well that he won't dare to REALLY take the bubble on. even put options pricing has changed somewhat in the OTC markets due to derivatives desks incorporating the knowledge that the market won't be allowed to fall under Greenspan. it really has become a virtually riskless one-way bet, at least that's the perception out there. all this sets us up for a real catastrophe down the road imo, but who knows when that will be... btw, the only market that is really too large to be manipulated, the credit market, is also the only one showing increasing signs of stress, with the TED spread blowing out to 117 bps. yesterday....a sign of unmitigated panic as it were. regards, hb

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