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Technology Stocks : Softbank Group Corp

SFTBY 55.36

-2.8%

Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: manohar kanuri who wrote (5185)	6/1/2000 11:47:00 AM
From: badon518	of 6020

manohar, of course china's growth into number 2 makes them difficult to ignore. i think the power of economic embargoes is greatly exaggerrated. every other developed nation thumbs their noses at us while they do business in cuba and castro uses the us embargo as a scapegoat for everything wrong. likewise, economic sanctions have done little to destabilize saddam hussein. nor did sanctions prove helpful inthe balkan conflict nor did they have a positive influence going back to the spanish civil war. so i doubt that isolating the prc will have any effect there either. i think it disturbing the prc has gained missile technolgy and some of our nuclear stuff. however, both roc and prc have maintained extensive espionage network at major us universities for years (when i was in college, i recall a leading us academic committed "suicide" by leaping from the top of the secret police headquarters in taipei, while ostensible visiting relatives). i am not surprised that they obtained these secrets, but i suspect they gained it more from bit by bit stuff than from some espionage breakthrough at los alamos. one disadvantage that the us has is that as a particularly open society (remember, we don't even have an equivalent to the uk official secrets act) we are particularly vulnerable to espionage. a lot of soviet avionics advances were attributable not to their spying, which was extenise, but to the soviet embassy subscription to aviaiton weekly. plus we should not underestimate their own abilities to generate stuff as well. there is a tendency in the us to underestimate asian know how, and this has proved costly in the past many times. in this regard i think that prc is in many ways a greater challenge to the us than the soviet union was.

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